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chat_bubble BAT DON'T LIE - VOLUME 3


The Falcons (3-0-1) have two games on the schedule for the week of May 25th.

My fantasy picks for the game against Bradley were below subpar - that happens sometimes. The world of fantasy slo-pitch is unpredictable and exciting.
Having poured through minutes and minutes of data, the entire Bat Don�t Lie research team feels very good about this week�s fantasy recommendations.

Monday, May 25 @ Hanet - Key Player to Target:
Sean Dunn
El Presidente is batting .660 (2012 - 2015) against Hanet - including a 4 for 4 performance earlier this season. Hanet has excellent defence in the infield and the outfield, limiting the Falcons to a team OBP of .563 over the past 3 seasons. Sean is easily the most unpredictable Falcon�s hitter - spraying the ball to all fields, and this tactic is obviously working against a stingy defensive team like Hanet. Expect Sean to rack up at least 6 total bases, 3 runs and 2 RBI.

Other Players to consider:
Jeremy Staszak (aka �PopTart�) has been impressive against Hanet (2012-2015), with an OBP of .651. When examining Jeremy�s splits based on game time, we discovered that his best OBP is playing in 8 pm games. This is a good match up for �Pop Tart�.

Sunday, May 31 vs A�s - Key Player to Target:
Ashley Teeter (aka Cash Man) has been a model of consistency with an OBP of .666 against the A�s. since 2010. Cash Man has shown some pop the last few seasons and his HR per AB have changed dramatically.
2012 - HR every 17 At-bats
2013 - HR every 23 At-bats
2014 - HR every 13.5 At-bats
2015 (to date) - HR every 8 At-bats

A very good career OBP vs the A�s and a dramatic increase in isolated power make him a great fantasy option for this game.

Other Players to consider:
Doug Short (aka �G3�, �Lines�, �Dougothy�, �Lacey�) has a career OBP of .682 vs the A�s going 15/22 with 10 RBI. The word of caution is that Doug is a notably poor hitter in 5 pm games.


Home Run Nonsense:

With 12 Home Runs in 4 games, the Falcons are on pace to hit 114. The Vegas over/under for Falcons Home Runs is 104.

Many �Bat Don�t Lie� fans have contacted me via Periscope, SnapChat and Twitter to ask - �Can you put WMSPL Home Runs into perspective for us? Is it really an epidemic?�

Here is the data for the past 5 seasons. Take a look and prepare to be amazed. The game has changed into a Home Run league�I�m not here to say if it�s right or wrong, I�m simply pointing out factual evidence and wondering what league executives and team reps can do with this information.

1.6 Home Runs hit per game
9 players hit 10 or more Home Runs
26 players hit 5 or more Home Runs

1.6 Home Runs hit per game
12 players hit 10 or more Home Runs
27 players hit 5 or more Home Runs

2.2 Home Runs hit per game
19 players hit 10 or more Home Runs
40 players hit 5 or more Home Runs

2012 is a departure from 2010 and 2011. A small, but noticeable jump in guys hitting 5+ and 10+ Home Runs

2.2 Home Runs hit per game
15 players hit 10 or more Home Runs
35 players hit 5 or more Home Runs

Home Runs per game is same as 2012, but we experience a slight decrease in the number of 5+ and 10+ Home Run hitters.

4.2 Home Runs hit per game
40 players hit 10 or more Home Runs
65 players hit 5 or more Home Runs

Oh shit, it�s an arms race! The number of players that hit 10+ Home Runs has increased 233%.
The number of Home Runs hit in a game has more than doubled in the past 3 years.
The number of players hitting 5+ Home Runs increased by 71% over the previous season.
This league has approx.. 180 players and 40 (22%) of them hit at least 10 Home Runs, while 35% of players hit at least 5 Home Runs. That�s pretty different than 2010 when 5% of players hit 10+ Home Runs and only 15% hit 5 or more Home Runs.

Tags: bat don't lie, dougothy, statistics, nerd
Posted on: Friday May 22nd, 2015 at 9:23PM